The IEA Is on the Peak Oil Boat

It looks like the IEA has jumped on the peak oil boat.

Basically the report estimates that our demand will rise at a slightly slower pace and we'll make up most of it using alternative methods. In 2030 they show natural gas and non conventional oil as making up about 25 million barrels per day, or about a quarter of the oil supply. Most of the rest is from currently undeveloped fields, what's left of existing fields and to a smaller extent newly discovered fields.

How much do they estimate it will cost? $200 a barrel in 2030. That means, according to my napkin calculations, $6 a gallon gas here in the midwest.

Typically the IEA forecasts a pretty rosy outlook for oil. I wonder why the sudden turn.